Dr. Boniface Dulani Publications

African publics strongly support term limits, resist leaders’ efforts to extend their tenure

Author: Dr. Boniface Dulani

Co-Author(s):

At the end of the 20th century, many African countries adopted presidential term limits as part of a broader set of constitutional rules that accompanied the transition from personal and authoritarian rule to pluralistic modes of governance. While term limits were widely embraced by the larger African public, these rules have in recent years come under increasing attack from incumbent presidents seeking to extend their tenures. In the first six months of 2015 alone, the presidents of Burundi, Benin, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Rwanda have either personally or through their supporters expressed the intention to dispense with or circumvent term limits in order to seek additional terms of office. These quests are often couched in language that portrays a leader’s desire for more time in office as a response to popular demands. A striking example was Blaise Compaoré’s 2014 attempt to seek a third term in Burkina Faso, which was stopped by popular protests that forced the president not just to back off, but to leave the country. But other leaders have been more successful in their efforts to avoid relinquishing power. To test the extent to which campaigns to remove or circumvent presidential term limits are in fact a response to popular demand, this paper draws from Afrobarometer survey data to gauge the levels of public support for presidential term limits. Results from 34 African countries show that there is strong support for presidential term limits among citizens across almost all countries. With very few exceptions, large majorities of Africans support the idea of imposing a two-term limit on the exercise of presidential power. This is true even in those countries that have never had term limits and those that have removed them in the past 15 years. Continuing efforts to dispense with term limits thus reveal a major disconnect between African leaders and African citizens on this issue, underlining the lingering legacy of big-man rule on the continent and highlighting the fragility of African democracies.

Malian democracy recovering - Military rule still admired

Author: Dr. Boniface Dulani

Co-Author(s):

Democracy, in the famous words of the British politician Winston Churchill, “is the worst form of government, except for all those other forms that have been tried from time to time.”1 After experiencing a twin crisis of separatist rebellion and a military coup in 2012, there were serious concerns about the future prospects of democracy in Mali. Would the short, but brutal, experience of authoritarian rule and a separatist struggle make the return to democracy possible in the short to medium term? Would the country rediscover its position as one of Africa’s promising democracies? Results from a December 2013 Afrobarometer survey suggest that Mali’s short-lived return to authoritarianism has contributed to only a slight increase in public clamor for democracy. Support for democracy has increased especially among groups that bore the brunt of the recent crisis, in the North of the country and among Internally Displaced People. However, this is offset by relatively low levels of support for democracy and rejection of non-democratic alternatives among southerners. The 2013 presidential and legislative elections have further helped to renew confidence in state institutions, as demonstrated by increased trust in key public bodies and increased belief that the new crop of public officials are less prone to corruption. However, given past experience, it is uncertain if this can be sustained. While most indicators of democracy are trending upwards, the country’s democracy still remains fragile. In 2013, demand for democracy in Mali was not only lower than the African average, but Malians perceived that political leaders are delivering a higher supply of democracy than they are actually demanding, suggesting a surplus of elite authority. Against a background of possible euphoria about the new government and relative peace, the high trust levels in public institutions might also be momentary. Taken together, the overall picture suggests the need for cautious optimism in thinking about democratic prospects in post-conflict Mali.