Democracy, in the famous words of the British politician Winston Churchill, “is the worst form of government, except for all those other forms that have been tried from time to time.â€1 After experiencing a twin crisis of separatist rebellion and a military coup in 2012, there were serious concerns about the future prospects of democracy in Mali. Would the short, but brutal, experience of authoritarian rule and a separatist struggle make the return to democracy possible in the short to medium term? Would the country rediscover its position as one of Africa’s promising democracies?
Results from a December 2013 Afrobarometer survey suggest that Mali’s short-lived return to authoritarianism has contributed to only a slight increase in public clamor for democracy. Support for democracy has increased especially among groups that bore the brunt of the recent crisis, in the North of the country and among Internally Displaced People. However, this is offset by relatively low levels of support for democracy and rejection of non-democratic alternatives among southerners. The 2013 presidential and legislative elections have further helped to renew confidence in state institutions, as demonstrated by increased trust in key public bodies and increased belief that the new crop of public officials are less prone to corruption. However, given past experience, it is uncertain if this can be sustained.
While most indicators of democracy are trending upwards, the country’s democracy still
remains fragile. In 2013, demand for democracy in Mali was not only lower than the African
average, but Malians perceived that political leaders are delivering a higher supply of
democracy than they are actually demanding, suggesting a surplus of elite authority. Against a
background of possible euphoria about the new government and relative peace, the high trust
levels in public institutions might also be momentary. Taken together, the overall picture
suggests the need for cautious optimism in thinking about democratic prospects in post-conflict
Mali.